Despite the challenges NIKE remains committed to drive the growth of sports in China.

Introduction

The company's multiyear innovation cycle has been mainly focused on increasing its speed to the consumer. For years, NIKE has used the Express Lane to facilitate short-lead-time replenishment and hyperlocal design, and it expects to continue leveraging this. However, in the past year, NIKE has developed a new approach across the entire product creation process. This is called the Speed Lane, a broader company-wide effort to move faster and be more responsive to the consumer. In the second half of fiscal 2025, the company expects to see additional innovations to be launched from Speed Lane, including several exciting new franchises in fitness and lifestyle.

Bull Case

Long-Term Playbook: Despite the ongoing challenges, management is on track with its actions to reposition NIKE to be more competitive, and drive sustainable, profitable long-term growth. The company is intensifying its focus on sports, speeding up the introduction and expansion of new products and innovations. NKE is also enhancing its storytelling efforts with greater impact and boldness while elevating the overall marketplace to strengthen brand distinction and align with consumer preferences. Additionally, the company is accelerating its innovation pipeline, advancing several innovations. It is taking bold steps to reclaim its leading edge in innovation. Focus on its sports performance product category has been the key to its strategy.

Strategic Actions on Track: Elliott has laid out a series of strategic actions to reposition the business and revitalize the momentum of the NIKE brand through sport. Some of these initiatives are already in progress, and the company is accelerating implementation while others are newly introduced. Notably, NIKE is transitioning its digital platform to a full-price model and reducing the reliance on promotional activity. Concurrently, the company is scaling back its investment in performance marketing, which will reduce paid traffic.

Plans for NIKE Digital: CEO Elliot noted that traffic in NIKE Direct, both online and in physical stores, has declined due to a lack of product innovation and inspiring narratives. This has led to an over-reliance on promotions. The company has shifted to a pushed model, with digital platforms showing a near 50-50 split between full-price and promotional sales at the start of fiscal 2025. NIKE Digital has been capturing demand, but competing with wholesale partners instead of creating new demand for its brands. As a result, the company is refocusing on enhancing the consumer experience, growing organic traffic, and driving full-price sales, as outlined by Elliot. Being a premium brand means focusing on full-price sales, with promotions limited to key retail periods rather than the current frequency. Additionally, NKE will explore using NIKE value stores to clear excess inventory.

Strong Financials & Sustained Shareholder Returns: NIKE ended second-quarter fiscal 2025 with strong liquidity, which included cash and short-term investments of $9.8 billion. Its long-term debt of $7.97 billion was almost flat from the prior quarter. For the past 14 years, the company has distributed regular dividends and made share repurchases to improve shareholder returns. In second-quarter fiscal 2025, the company returned $1.6 billion to shareholders, including $1.1 billion in share repurchases and $557 million in dividends. As of Nov. 30, NIKE repurchased 112.8 million shares for $11.3 billion as part of its four-year $18-billion share repurchase program approved in June 2022. NIKE has a dividend payout ratio of 38%, annualized dividend yield of 2.2% and free cash flow yield of 5.2%.

Bear Case

Shares Decline, Appear Overvalued: Shares of NKE lost 29% in the past year compared with the industry's decline of 22.3%. NIKE's dismal share performance indicates ongoing challenges for the company, further highlighted by its disappointing second-quarter fiscal 2025 results. In the quarter, NIKE faced continued pressure from weak sales in its lifestyle segment, declining digital revenues, and challenges in the Greater China market, leading to slower revenue growth and squeezed profit margins.

Considering price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, NIKE looks overvalued compared with the industry. The stock has a trailing 12-month P/E ratio of 32.86X, which is above the median level of 25.97X but below the high level of 36.15X, scaled in the past year. On the contrary, the trailing 12-month P/E ratio is 26.17X for the industry. Given these factors, we believe that the stock is quite stretched from the P/E aspect.

Franchise Management Actions: NKE has experienced sluggish sales trends in its lifestyle segment, including men's, women's, and Jordan. As outlined in first-quarter fiscal 2025, the company is progressing with its plans to adjust timelines and reduce the overall supply of select classic footwear franchises across various channels. NIKE is focused on recalibrating these franchises within NIKE Digital, where they hold the largest share of business. However, these strategic actions are expected to impact certain business aspects, creating short-term revenue headwinds in fiscal 2025. In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the company advanced its efforts to shift its product portfolio by reducing reliance on its classic footwear franchises. These franchises continued to decline at a rate faster than the overall business, with a more pronounced slowdown compared to the first quarter.

As a result, the company's second-quarter fiscal 2025 sales were impacted by ongoing headwinds from its franchise management actions, which led to year-over-year revenue declines of 8% on a reported basis and 9% on a currency-neutral basis. The company continues to see significant reductions in its classic footwear franchises through NIKE Direct, which declined 13% on a reported basis and 14% on a currency-neutral basis, including a 21% drop in NIKE Digital and a 2% decrease in NIKE Stores. Wholesale also experienced a 3% decline year over year on a reported basis and 4% decline on a currency-neutral basis. Marketplace trends in the fiscal second quarter mirrored the challenges previously highlighted, as traffic and retail sales fell short of expectations, particularly in September and October. However, November brought a positive shift, with digital and in-store traffic gaining momentum, especially during key consumer events such as Black Friday week, signaling improved performance in critical periods.

China Business in Jeopardy: NIKE's business in Greater China has been a focal point for its global strategy, reflecting significant opportunities and challenges. Recent trends reveal that the company has been experiencing considerable shifts in consumer traffic in Greater China, with declines in brick-and-mortar traffic and lower sell-through rates. Driven by retail traffic declines in a difficult macro environment, revenues in Greater China declined 11% year over year in second-quarter fiscal 2025. NIKE Direct channel revenues in Greater China declined 7%, including an 8% decline in NIKE stores and a 4% decline in NIKE Digital. Wholesale in the region was down 15% year over year. The company also required higher markdown activity to drive sell-through and inventory velocity, negatively impacting gross margins. EBIT in Greater China declined 27% on a reported basis.

Amid a competitive landscape, NIKE remains committed to delivering product innovation, inspiring consumers, and driving the growth of sports in China. The company continues to experience strong demand for full-price products, supported by reduced markdowns and higher margins on locally designed express lane offerings. While management anticipates near-term challenges, it highlights the ongoing growth of sports in China. NIKE is actively addressing current headwinds in the region to restore brand momentum and maintain a healthy marketplace.

Hedge Fund Bets

DCF

Conclusion

According to Nike's third-quarter fiscal 2025 outlook, Elliott's actions and foreign exchange headwinds will cause a low-double-digit revenue decline. The company anticipates a slight decline in SG&A expenses and a 300350 basis point drop in the gross margin year over year. Between $30 million and $40 million is the estimated range for other revenue and expenses, including net interest income. It is anticipated that the gross margin will drop 300 basis points to 41.8%, while SG&A expenses will drop 2.6% year over year to $4.1 billion. In the fiscal third quarter, SG&A expenses are anticipated to rise by 290 basis points to 36.9%.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus .